How Scoring Works

MacroZak does not predict prices, and it is not a black box. This page explains exactly what is live market data versus what is a structured model.

Impact scores and stress scenarios are analytical tools for education and risk context — not investment advice, trading signals, or a track record.

Your portfolio — holdings, weights, and position values priced from live quotes when FINNHUB_API_KEY is configured.

Macro inputs — 10-year yield, dollar index, CPI, fed funds (FRED when configured), plus the Fear & Greed Index.

News — headlines and event detection from live feeds.

Where you see "Today" on a geo exposure row, that is an actual price move from a live quote — not a projection.

Impact scores and stress scenarios are structured assumptions — not backtested statistics or trained forecasts.

We maintain a catalog of scenario shocks: how much we assume an asset class or sector would move under a given event type. That catalog is applied to your holdings using sector classification and index look-through for funds.

Think of it as the kind of stress test a risk desk sketches by hand — deliberate and transparent — not a model pretending to be precise because the number has a decimal.

Real event studies and computed historical sensitivity are on our roadmap. We will not fake that precision in the meantime.

Each scenario defines a base shock per asset class. That shock is adjusted for a specific stock's sector and sensitivity, then applied to your live portfolio value and weights.

The result is a what-if: if these assumptions held, roughly how much would your book move? It is not a forecast of what will happen next.

Each catalog event carries assumed sector and asset impacts. We map those to your holdings directly, by sector, or through look-through weighting for index funds and ETFs.

The live "Today" figure and the scenario estimate are separate numbers by design — they are not meant to match. Other catalysts often drive today's tape while a geo scenario describes a structured shock assumption.

Our regime read combines live rates, dollar strength, inflation, and sentiment into a score using fixed rules. That score maps to a bias label (bullish, neutral, bearish) and a strength band (weak, moderate, strong).

Portfolio Impact shows how that macro read relates to a holding's weight and concentration — not a stock-specific percentage move.

These estimates are for structured risk context only:

• Scores are not backtested against past events.
• Scores are not statistically derived betas or factor sensitivities.
• MacroZak does not tell you what to buy or sell.
• We do not present a performance track record for these estimates.

Replacing hand-set scenario assumptions with historical event studies and computed sensitivity is on our roadmap. When that ships, this page will say so explicitly.

MacroZak is not financial advice. See our investment disclaimer for full terms.